Quantitative risk advisory for financial services and fintech firms

Stop debating risk. Start pricing it.

Heat maps get discounted. Vendor tiers miss the relationship that matters. A VaR model built for a calmer market understates the tail until the quarter it doesn’t. Seeking Eureka replaces all three with risk measured in dollars, so leadership can act instead of argue.

Seeking Eureka is a boutique quantitative risk advisory led by Patrick Lefler. He has traded fixed income at Goldman Sachs, where a mis-modeled tail shows up as real losses by the end of the day. He has also run the security program as SVP Risk & Information Security at FIA Tech, where a risk register that can’t be defended in the boardroom is a budget that never gets approved.

The work spans three disciplines, applied by one practitioner rather than handed off between specialists. FAIR-based quantification turns cyber and operational risk into board-ready loss estimates. Graph-theoretic mapping of Active Directory and third-party networks finds the single point of failure that conventional tiering misses. Value at Risk and extreme value theory modeling show hedge funds and trading firms where their current models over- or understate the tail.

The result is one consistent number your CISO, your third-party risk team, and your risk desk can all stand behind, because it comes from one model rather than three incompatible ones.

What we do

Risk Quantification. FAIR modeling and Monte Carlo simulation turn your top risk scenarios into loss-exceedance curves measured in dollars, built to survive the first hard question from a board or regulator.

Third-Party Risk. We model your Active Directory and vendor network as a dependency graph and use centrality analysis to rank what actually breaks the most, instead of relying on one-vendor-at-a-time tiers.

Tail-Risk + Capital Modeling. We benchmark your existing VaR model against an extreme value theory alternative built from your own loss data, so you see where it over- or understates the tail before an auditor or a bad quarter does.

Fractional Risk Services. When you need senior quantitative risk ownership on an ongoing basis, we embed as your fractional risk lead without the cost of a full-time hire.

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